Brexit Benefits

[piman2k]

I don't mind migration myself, particularly if it's economically beneficial and/or charitable for those who are fleeing conflict.

However, this is obviously going to rear its head today, because it's another example of a 'Brexit Sales Pitch' that hasn't come to fruition. I've lost count of the number of Conservative manifestos that have said they would 'fix' this 'crisis', despite it not being a crisis at all.

The campaign by UKIP:




The reality delivered by the government (Conservatives propped up with UKIP and Brexit Party):

[piman2k]

And of course, these are also serious issues.

This one is particularly contentious because in October we are set to finally start operating with the full trade checks required by the EU, which will mean even more check, paperwork and inevitably costs.



https://www.theguardian.com/politics...f-since-brexit


And the addition of paperwork, checks and costs also really is the crux of this story too:



https://www.theguardian.com/politics...n-report-finds

£250 a year for every family in the UK.

I specifically remember Jacob Rees-Mogg saying that, one we left the EU, we would have "cheaper food, clothing and footwear".

For context, the relative trade quantities between EU countries have not significantly changed and all EU countries are seeing price rises as a result of inflation. This article identifies that this accounts for inflation and is, in effective, a Brexit tax.

[piman2k]

Now, here's an interesting one.

And this could be, and I say this non-sarcastically:

an actual, tangible Brexit Benefit.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...rexit-benefit/

The Spectator, super pro-Brexit, even acknowledges Brexit has been lame, but does report on this.

So, under the Spanish new Digital Nomad Visa scheme, a UK citizen (because they're not an EU national), earning over £24.5k and with valid health insurance, can go and work remotely for a UK company in Spain, for up to 5 years, and pay only 15% income tax on earnings.

I question how many British people will take up that option considering it means a relocation, and let's be clear, it's absolutely not something Brexit voters voted for because the scheme didn't exist at the time.

But if you take into account 5% income tax saving and however much N/I is, you would definitely retain more of your earned money.

Which would make it a benefit of Brexit, regardless of how few people it will affect.

[BLAKTOOTH]

Oh will you just fuk off.

I think translated that means you agree to disagree?

Maybe I shouldn't but I'm quite enjoying this little bromance. It's great entertainment and actually quite informative. Pi's facts and figures vs Lowe's personal experience.

It has to get worse before it gets better and a lot of sh!t's happened since Brexit. I voted with my head and not my heart. I did lot's of research on a subject I knew very little about as this was something worth voting for. Ultimately I voted with a selfish head. My job didn't seem to be at risk and I quite liked my life the way it was. Leaving just seemed to be too bigger risk. I was as surprised by the result as everybody else but it now is what it is. I'm still employed, my family and friends are good and I'm happy. So that's me happy and DLowe seems pretty happy... Do you need a hug Ryan?

Oh yeah, Brexit benefits. Here you go: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...rexit-benefit/

"Hola, here’s the first Brexit Benefit
Spain’s Digital Nomad Visa means leavers can take back control by working on the continent"

Edit: Just seen you posted the same article. Nice one Ryan!

[DLowe]

The Spanish are the first, I expect others will follow....

Like I've been saying the whole way through it's going to be a lengthy process before it gets better... and it can't happen too quickly as it can not be made to look like a good option for any other euro country as the whole thing would be at risk of collapse if we were successful overnight.

Facts and figures will never outweigh human nature and naturally those in charge will want to remain as they are, so there is no possible way a good deal can be struck until it calms... no one is ever going to give a group leaving favourable terms over what they had before until they can bring something new to the table or prove they can survive without. Which is where to me any negotiations have failed in the past as we seem to be spending so much time trying to remain in the EU but come out on paper I stead of focusing on the other 70% of the world and letting the EU approach us.

To me we should have tried be the "gateway" to the world for the EU and tried negotiating exports from France etc coming here first to move on to other places we can deal with.

Say for an idea, not thinking too much about it, straight off top of the head....

Scrap any duty between us and america/Australia/Asia if possible, concentrate on that first while the EU Consdered thier position.

Then we could have approached negotiations with a proper positive position offered from others, and gone for a status quo on the free trade we already had so they could freely. Ove things here and then send them on.

Using the tax from the docs, buisness rates and boost in supporting industries to pay the way instead of goods duties.

I know its not that simple, but I don't feel from anything I've read any approach like that was considered and we spent the majority of the transition period sending people to Brussels to try keeping things instead of stating fresh with any new opportunities.

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[piman2k]

Lolol, DLowe, chap, your lack of understanding of even basic economic policies continues to be staggering, and that's why we are once again stuck.

France can't negotiate trade deals with the U.K. on its own.

We can scrap duties on American imports anytime we want. But that would be economic suicide.

Never mind chap.

[DLowe]

The point is that throughout the whole process we were bombarded everyday with how negotiations with the EU bit nothing or very little about any other deals with any other countries.

For the whole run upto the vote the news and poles were so sure we would remain there seemed to be little done in preparation for the exit, and the people arranging going the exit seemed to want to stay in. It would never be effective.

I don't believe in all the diffrent genders about, so it looks the same as me arranging 40 different toilets at a festival.... it just won't happen well for anyone after.

France obviously can't arrange on thier own, but they are our closest port and if we bought any kind of leverage to the table the EU would have to negotiate on thier behalf, we effectively walked into a car dealership and said we will have it regardless, take as much out as you want and we'll still take it mr dealer sir.


As I say, I'm approaching the problem through the eyes of the average low income poor person in the UK..... they do not vote with facts they vote with emotion and that's why brexit happened, the general public are fed up of the status quo of the last 40 yrs where they feel that they have gotten nowhere and watch as thier jobs erode.

I ask simple questions that don't require confusion and a quagmire of political crap.

Why go Spain for peppers and tomatoes when Morocco is not much different in distance and cheaper for the produce? I would have tried negotiated a deal in that direction then let the EU approach me if they wanted get in on it.

Why didn't we try to get a deal going with South Korea or Japan regarding car imports, concentrate on making KIA and Toyota the go to brands instead of audi and bmw.

To me as a layman looking in there was a lot of time wasted on deals that wouldn't ever be any good and not on improving relations with the rest of the world.



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[piman2k]

Your fourth paragraph is accurate, and is something docrwa pointed out about 20 pages ago.

You may think you ask simple questions that don't require "political crap" but that doesn't mean that they're even remotely relevant or accurate.

I have said a myriad of times, there should have been a test so that people could show they understood what they were voting for, not that they were voting with their guts.

Just living here should not be enough reason to get a say in how the country participated in the EU if you cannot prove you understand why it is like it is.

You haven't answered my question about American tariffs or even demonstrated why it's an absurd idea. Please address that.

[piman2k]

In fact, don't lol.

Honestly, it's Friday night and we already know you wont answer it in a rational way.

[docwra]

Im just back from a holiday in Spain, good to see this continues

I have a comparison that I think fits quite well here: I was lucky enough to go to both of the Fatboy Slim beach parties in Brighton 20 odd years ago.
The first was a relatively small affair, 40K people and went off without a hitch. The second had over 200K people and closed the railways, the M23 and most of Brighton, 2 people died and 170 were injured.

After having a great time at the first party we made sure we got to the second one early, so were quite close to the front. Stayed all day, went back to a mates house to continue the party and it was only when we saw the news next morning we realised how big it had been, because we were right up the front and could only see what was directly round us we had no idea, we thought there were about the same number of people as the first one.

Did the fact we could only see a few thousand people and no big problems mean there werent 200K there and utter carnage? Does DLowes personal experience of Brexit being A Good Thing mean that everything we read in the press isnt actually happening?
Of course it doesnt.

[docwra]

Why go Spain for peppers and tomatoes when Morocco is not much different in distance and cheaper for the produce? I would have tried negotiated a deal in that direction then let the EU approach me if they wanted get in on it.
Why didn't we try to get a deal going with South Korea or Japan regarding car imports, concentrate on making KIA and Toyota the go to brands instead of audi and bmw.
To me as a layman looking in there was a lot of time wasted on deals that wouldn't ever be any good and not on improving relations with the rest of the world.

The problem is that trade deals are a two way street, both sides need to see a benefit. Morocco has no interest in selling to the UK as our market is much, much smaller than the EU, the EU also provide £50m in development funding to Morocco every year in exchange for being top of the list for exports.
Japan exports 1.4 million cars to the USA every year; Japan exports 140K to the UK so theres no way we can have a deal that comes close to the USA's or anyone elses as we consume so little compared to the USA or EU.

This was always going to be the case if we left the EU regardless of what the Leave campaign told us, its depressing the truth is only just coming out though - this story confirms we are no longer discussing a deal with the USA: https://www.ft.com/content/1fd173a6-...2-685801ec1604

[piman2k]

Does DLowe's personal experience of Brexit being A Good Thing mean that everything we read in the press isn't actually happening?

Of course it doesn't.

Yep, exactly what I keep saying. Worse though, he keeps quoting things that are good but has no way to link them to being a product of Brexit.

Plus:

Facts and figures will never outweigh human nature

He's just not interested in data. His gut is everything to him.

[piman2k]

"UK factories blame 16th month in a row of falling exports on Brexit barriers"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sury-secretary

British factories have reported a 16th consecutive month of falling exports, with manufacturers warning obstacles to trade since leaving the EU are undermining business relationships with firms on the continent, according to the S&P Global/CIPS purchasing managers index (PMI).

Exporters blamed factors including a loss of orders to the US and mainland Europe, and an increasing number of EU clients switching to more local sourcing to avoid the customs barriers, paperwork and delays involved in exporting goods from the UK.

Another national level victory unfortunately.

[DLowe]

So why are there so many more opening weekly round here?

If the UK manufacturing was suffering so badly then there is no way Staffordshire would be seeing the boom in factories and warehousing.

Reports such as that do not reflect what is happening here.... or maybe they are down on exports, but they are picking up a lot of imports no longer coming in.

So not really a negative round here.


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[DLowe]

I agree fully with what doc says, and I can see all the points made.

It is very much the same as I have said, I haven't been saying its a good thing, just reasoning as to why it happened and thinking about how the transition seems to me to be a lot worse than it should have been.

And to myself and anyone able to remove themselves from the anti brexit news reports and able to think without all the "passion" about remain or leave etc.

You have to question what actually went on, we were constantly subjected to the euro efforts to try and keep everything the same but out, but there was little reported so far as I could see to actually progress with anyone other than mainland Europe.

Obviously as doc says its a 2 way street and we have very little to give back, an issue seemingly caused by joining up in the first place.... but personally I would have liked to see a lot more effort put into non eu negotiations. Regardless of personal beliefs it was voted for and decided and is/was happening so why not try to progress with the new opportunities more so that stagnate with the old.



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[DLowe]

To add a bit of the tin foil hat to the argument too....

There were a lot of people, very supposedly educated people, telling everyone to take the covid vaccines and arguing for lock downs etc.

These are now turning out to be no where near as good/effective/tested as they claimed to have been, but at the time they were the only hope....

Brexit I am sure will be something along similar lines.....

A lot of educated people are now telling us how bad it is and how there's no future, but where do there interests lie??

Slightly more than half of the country thought they would like to try a different approach, 52% of the population who for the majority have been on the bottom rung and have little precieved prospects, like the trump time, they just want a change, good or bad, just something to change.

To me the brexit vote was.more than just leaving the EU, it was a sign to the government and the world in general that there needs to be something done that changes the way we do things, something needs to happen to close the wealth division.

Trump, brexit, yellow vests, Hong Kong protests,...

All happening around the same time, all spurrd on by working classes, all acts of rebellion against established systems of authority.


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[piman2k]

So why are there so many more opening weekly round here?

I don't know, but for the umpteenth time, just because it's apparently going well in your area doesn't mean the national picture is the same. You've accepted this, I think, in a previous post, so I don't know why you keep coming back to this point, especially when you say:

I agree fully with what doc says, and I can see all the points made.

Then there's this:

its a 2 way street and we have very little to give back, an issue seemingly caused by joining up in the first place

What does this mean?

There were a lot of people, very supposedly educated people, telling everyone to take the covid vaccines and arguing for lock downs etc.

These are now turning out to be no where near as good/effective/tested as they claimed to have been, but at the time they were the only hope....

More absolutely spurious nonsense.

Your ability to just conjure up conspiracy theory nonsense and then claim it's not a conspiracy continues to impress me.

[Asht_200]

More absolutely spurious nonsense.

Your ability to just conjure up conspiracy theory nonsense and then claim it's not a conspiracy continues to impress me.

It doesn't take simple mathematics to determine how ridiculous his claim covid vaccines aren't effective - I wonder if DLOWE was an AntiVac

[piman2k]

I wonder if DLOWE was an AntiVac

Oh I am all but certain he won't have had a vaccine.

[docwra]

To add a bit of the tin foil hat to the argument too....

There were a lot of people, very supposedly educated people, telling everyone to take the covid vaccines and arguing for lock downs etc.

These are now turning out to be no where near as good/effective/tested as they claimed to have been, but at the time they were the only hope....

No, as usual the other side are making shit up. No-one claimed the vaccines has been tested for transmission (how would you do it in a short period) but the antivaxxers have jumped on it: https://fullfact.org/health/coronavi...smission-test/

Earlier this week The Telegraph led with a story about how a Liverpool John Hopkins study of 20,000 other papers found lockdown only saved 1700 lives: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...k-study-finds/

Except its not peer reviewed, not endorsed by the university, only uses 34 of the 20,000 papers and wasnt written by scientists, it was written by anti lockdown economists. Theres also the evidence from places like NZ and Greece that clearly show lockdowns were effective, not to mention the graphs from the time here in the UK.
But it still made the front page of the Telegraph. Thats your comparison with Brexit, certain media outlets and politicians are quite happy to lie about it.