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Thread: Are we heading for another Financial Crash?

  1. #21
    Guest R3K1355's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonny Wilkinson View Post
    There is a difference in the lending life of a vehicle (3-4 years) being less than for a house (20-25 years) so I predict we will see something different with car lending. As PCP loans start to cycle and borrowers change up to a new car with another PCP loan, there will be a glut of 3-4 year old cars that will be really difficult to absorb into a second hand car market that is already saturated as people buy new cars on PCP instead of "settling" for a 3-4 yr old secondhand car.
    To a certain extent we're already there, but there's a key difference.

    Lots of people are now coming off cheap PCP deals, anyone working in car sales will tell you that sales numbers are completely through the floor.
    People simply aren't buying new cars like they were previously.

    The glut isn't going to be as bad as thought, owners have not traded the car on, those that have didn't buy another new car.

  2. #22
    Guest Asht_200's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideways14a View Post
    A trader kicks me under the desk i will make sure no one finds the body.
    Dont mess with IT staff, they can put kiddy dirt on your home pc and call the plod on you.
    We had a deputy IT Director sectioned for having kiddy porn. I found it on his PC


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  3. #23
    Member arry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Asht_200 View Post
    Sorry Jonny, you are wrong. RBS invented the repackaged mortgage debts because our banking laws allowed it.


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    Negative.

    Also an RBS escapee.
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  4. #24
    Guest Asht_200's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arry View Post
    Negative.

    Also an RBS escapee.
    Well you two bankers can sponsor me


    https://www.justgiving.com/fundraisi...term=RV3KVv42m


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  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Asht_200 View Post
    Sorry Jonny, you are wrong. RBS invented the repackaged mortgage debts because our banking laws allowed it.


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    Securitization (the technique of repackaging debt and selling it on) has been around since the 18th Century.

    I was building systems to manage repackaged lease hire debt in 1990 just as these instruments were taking off in the UK, ten years before Royal Bank of Scotland bought Nat West Capital Markets (which was when they got seriously into investment banking) and I was working at RBS Cap Markets fifteen years later when the ABN Amro CDO positions (that brought RBS to its knees) were taken onto the books but, hey, WTF do I know ?

    Now I'm retired, I'm too busy doing WTF I want to get into an argument about the history of derivatives so I'm out

  6. #26
    Guest Asht_200's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonny Wilkinson View Post
    Securitization (the technique of repackaging debt and selling it on) has been around since the 18th Century.

    I was building systems to manage repackaged lease hire debt in 1990 just as these instruments were taking off in the UK, ten years before Royal Bank of Scotland bought Nat West Capital Markets (which was when they got seriously into investment banking) and I was working at RBS Cap Markets fifteen years later when the ABN Amro CDO positions (that brought RBS to its knees) were taken onto the books but, hey, WTF do I know ?

    Now I'm retired, I'm too busy doing WTF I want to get into an argument about the history of derivatives so I'm out
    Oh so it was your fault


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  7. #27
    Oor Willy sideways14a's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Asht_200 View Post
    Well you two bankers can sponsor me

    Autocorrect playing up again?

  8. #28
    Guest R3K1355's Avatar
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    So has anyone noticed the colossal financial crash that just happened?

  9. #29
    Member sx rider's Avatar
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    Yeah! Good time to buy shares!

  10. #30
    Member arry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by R3K1355 View Post
    So has anyone noticed the colossal financial crash that just happened?
    Nope, was too busy securitising toilet paper
    Porsche 911 C2 & FN2 Civic Type R
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  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by arry View Post
    Nope, was too busy securitising toilet paper

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by R3K1355 View Post
    So has anyone noticed the colossal financial crash that just happened?
    Its a blip. When the silly twats work out it means that there will be many fewer old fogeys to support in their dotage, the markets will recover lol

  13. #33
    Guest Asht_200's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonny Wilkinson View Post
    Its a blip. When the silly twats work out it means that there will be many fewer old fogeys to support in their dotage, the markets will recover lol
    Unfortunately it has nothing to do with Corona virus.... itís to do with Oil. Russia and Saudi Arabia having a fight

    Russia flexing its Putin bare chested muscles again. They donít actually sell that much oil.

    We wonít see a reduction in fuel prices because the vast majority is tax


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  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Asht_200 View Post
    Russia flexing its Putin bare chested muscles again. They don’t actually sell that much oil.
    Saudi's doing the same tho.

    They (and OPEC) want others to cut production further to bump the price, but these guys aren't in the club so they don't have to agree to anything.
    Especially as they'd already agreed to cuts previously.

    Saudi throws a massive strop, opens up the taps and floods the market right at the time when demand is falling.
    Hard to completely blame the Russians for this one.

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    Everything stated below is my opinion based on working in and studying finance in the UK, US and Europe over the last 36 years. You don't have to agree with it (Ash) but please don't tell me I'm wrong. Opinion is what it is.

    The oil shenanigans is just business as usual really. Whilst its timing exacerbated the turmoil in the market caused by fears over the impact of CV on the global economy, its not unusual for OPEC and non-OPEC to start supply wars as OPEC is effectively a cartel and the non-OPECs don't like having their revenue streams being controlled by the Arabs.

    Read up on post-Chavez Venezuelan economics (or even Chavez-era for that matter) if you want to gain a better understanding of oil markets (and petrol prices particularly).

    Oil wars does not typically cause a rush out of stocks and shares and into gold, its fear of a recession and that is what we have seen. The index prices will bounce to some extent as there was panic selling going on.

    Whether it will recover completely will, I predict, depend on how things work out in China. If they show that they can control the peak of CV infection without it significantly denting productivity then confidence will return quickly as the expectation will be that the rest of the world can recover as well as, if not better than, China.

  16. #36
    Member stoofer's Avatar
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    I think with JIT manufacturing being the norm, there's just not enough knowledge in investors about which companies are exposed to risk of going under well enough, so general jitters which then swiftly becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. I think there'll be a relatively strong and swift recovery as the attack vectors go down and rate of new infections fall off (i.e. not yet).

  17. #37
    Guest Asht_200's Avatar
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    Are we heading for another Financial Crash?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonny Wilkinson View Post
    Everything stated below is my opinion based on working in and studying finance in the UK, US and Europe over the last 36 years. You don't have to agree with it (Ash) but please don't tell me I'm wrong. Opinion is what it is.

    The oil shenanigans is just business as usual really. Whilst its timing exacerbated the turmoil in the market caused by fears over the impact of CV on the global economy, its not unusual for OPEC and non-OPEC to start supply wars as OPEC is effectively a cartel and the non-OPECs don't like having their revenue streams being controlled by the Arabs.

    Read up on post-Chavez Venezuelan economics (or even Chavez-era for that matter) if you want to gain a better understanding of oil markets (and petrol prices particularly).

    Oil wars does not typically cause a rush out of stocks and shares and into gold, its fear of a recession and that is what we have seen. The index prices will bounce to some extent as there was panic selling going on.

    Whether it will recover completely will, I predict, depend on how things work out in China. If they show that they can control the peak of CV infection without it significantly denting productivity then confidence will return quickly as the expectation will be that the rest of the world can recover as well as, if not better than, China.
    If you really studied finance, you wouldnít have kept an S13 for all these years

    Corona virus ( which is the common cold, SARS and this new one) is being bigged up by the media. You have more chance of winning the lottery than dying of a Covid-19 related infection. Corona doesnít kill you


    You May know more about financial institutions, I and my sisters know more about infections and viruses than you do (Jonny) itís not going to decimate the world

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    Last edited by Asht_200; 11-03-2020 at 17:25.

  18. #38
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    Decimate would (literally) be one in ten dead. That really would be an economic problem even if it was predominately non-workers.

  19. #39
    Guest Asht_200's Avatar
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    See that is your problem. You think non workers are most likely to get it. Itís people who actually work and move around who will get it. They arenít the ones at risk itís the people they come in to contact with

    As Joanna Lumley says, stop being such a ****


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    I'm not saying they will spread it. I'm saying they will die from it lol

    The workers spread it, but the oldies and the sick that the workers interact with are the ones that are dying.

    Anyone being sick for 2 weeks is not a productivity issue. If the workers die, the economy is in shit.

    You are obviously struggling with the difference between humanity and economics.

    From a human point of view, old and sick people dying is tragic.

    From an economic point of view, the workers count.

    End of the day, this is a car forum. Nothing we say makes any difference at all.

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