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Thread: WOT No EU Referendum Thread?

  1. #1141
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    If we leave on WTO terms and don’t pay our contractual obligations to the E.U. on what we owe and what we signed up to, how will the rest of the world look at us with a straight face when we come seeking co-operative trade deals based on trust, being a country that will have literally just stuck two fingers up to their responsibilities on the last deal?
    I can't answer that question because I'm not able to speak for other countries, business is business, the EU is now one of our major competitors, they are in massive financial difficulties with many of the countries in the block on the verge of bankruptcy, if we leave on WTO terms we will not be giving them the 50 billion divorce settlement, they will also be out of pocket due to the massive trade defecit, it has always been good business practice to try and put your competitors out of business leaving a bigger share of the market, our present goverment are very business orientated so I wouldn't be shocked if we leave on WTO terms at the end of the year.

    Let's not forgot our allies, America and the common wealth will also start to put the pressure on the EU, Russia will also do well from a failing EU economy and will possibly end up with some of the old eastern block back.
    Last edited by LeonatLarge; 18-01-2020 at 20:01.

  2. #1142
    Oor Willy sideways14a's Avatar
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    I dont buy the stuff about the UK being shunned, well when it comes to doing business with.
    For a start i doubt the big 3 car firms in Germany will be wanting to see much in the way of tariffs on cars. They know the uk public jizz all over there overpriced crap and will be having a wee word in Merkels ear long ago about.

  3. #1143
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    Oh don’t fall for that shyte sideways. The Brexit campaign said the exact same thing, and so far there’s not an iota of evidence to lend any truth to it. The law is the law.

    Leon, the EU isn’t our largest competitor. It’s our biggest customer.

  4. #1144
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    Oh don’t fall for that shyte sideways. The Brexit campaign said the exact same thing, and so far there’s not an iota of evidence to lend any truth to it. The law is the law.

    Leon, the EU isn’t our largest competitor. It’s our biggest customer.

    I didn't say the EU was our largest competitor, I said the EU is now a major competitor.

    We will be competing with the EU for trade with nations from all over the world, it will be in our interest to undercut our major competitor, and give our businesses an advantage over those in the EU, this is why there will be no level playing field with the EU regarding trade.

    When we leave the EU we will not be under EU law, the goverment have been very clear about this.

    The majority of our trade is not with the EU, the trade we do have with the EU has been in decline for a while now due to its economy, the massive trade defecit will generate huge amounts of capital once tariffs are applied, this could be used to compensate businesses that have been affected.
    Last edited by LeonatLarge; 19-01-2020 at 22:13.

  5. #1145
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    The majority of our total trade might not be with the EU but they are our singlebiggest customer. They have always been a competitor at the same time.

    The rest of the trade with the rest of the world, that mostly comes through favourable trade deals VIA the EU buying power.

    We can’t have no alignment with them. It will cripple the U.K.

    Edited to make it make sense. Doh.
    Last edited by piman2k; 19-01-2020 at 23:14.

  6. #1146
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    For the record, we have come full circle in this argument now. And still no closer to a compromise of views.

    Which to me is very representative of the country.

    Today’s headlines are Johnson implementing his points based immigration system 2 years ahead of schedule, which is not necessarily a wholesale bad thing. But I wonder how industries like farming will handle seasonal labour given the restrictions now in place (2500 max alllwance).

  7. #1147
    Guest Asht_200's Avatar
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    The EU economy isnít in decline. It has been growing steadily year on year and is still the largest trading block in the world.


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  8. #1148
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeonatLarge
    When we leave the EU we will not be under EU law, the goverment have been very clear about this.
    I know, this is exactly what concerned me in post #1132. But the simple fact is, we can't disconnect entirely from EU standards and rules regardless of what Mr. Javid wants to proclaim in the press. There are rules and regulations to which we must comply if we want to be able to sell into the EU.

    These rules and regulations (that we helped write) aren't just on the finished product, but on things like the ethical sourcing of materials and working standards for labourers. The EU just won't let us sell products now or in the future that don't meet these standards, or it puts their own manufacturing industry at a disadvantage. Much like the UK with food standards in this American trade deal.

    Still, on the bright side, we might never have to pay VAT or Import Tax on American goods in that case. So that's much cheaper Full Race, Mazworx, Wisefab and similar.

  9. #1149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Asht_200 View Post
    The EU economy isn’t in decline. It has been growing steadily year on year and is still the largest trading block in the world.


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    I didn't say the EU economy was in decline, I said our trade with the EU is in decline due to the EU's economy, when the Germans officially announce that they are in recession this year the EU economy will then officially be in decline.

    The EU is the largest trading bloc, it will be 30% smaller when we leave.

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-11-1028688230
    Last edited by LeonatLarge; 20-01-2020 at 10:00.

  10. #1150
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    I know, this is exactly what concerned me in post #1132. But the simple fact is, we can't disconnect entirely from EU standards and rules regardless of what Mr. Javid wants to proclaim in the press. There are rules and regulations to which we must comply if we want to be able to sell into the EU.

    These rules and regulations (that we helped write) aren't just on the finished product, but on things like the ethical sourcing of materials and working standards for labourers. The EU just won't let us sell products now or in the future that don't meet these standards, or it puts their own manufacturing industry at a disadvantage. Much like the UK with food standards in this American trade deal.

    Still, on the bright side, we might never have to pay VAT or Import Tax on American goods in that case. So that's much cheaper Full Race, Mazworx, Wisefab and similar.
    We buy far more from the EU than they buy from us, China, India and many African countries all sell to the EU with no problems, the EU rules regarding trade will be out of the window once we leave, so we can under cut them internationally, if the EU stops its businesses buying from the UK, our goverment will reciprocate and the EU will be much worse off due to the 93 billion trade defecit, in my opinion with the German economy struggling and us leaving I think it will bankrupt them.
    Last edited by LeonatLarge; 20-01-2020 at 10:07.

  11. #1151
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    We do buy more from the EU than vice versa, but how many times has this been proved to be a generic and inaccurate measure of the effects of no deal? Countless. I’m not going thru it again.

    Read this epic length article, it’s as good an explanation as any. But I’m sure you’ll reject it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46612362

  12. #1152
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    We do buy more from the EU than vice versa, but how many times has this been proved to be a generic and inaccurate measure of the effects of no deal? Countless. I’m not going thru it again.

    Read this epic length article, it’s as good an explanation as any. But I’m sure you’ll reject it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46612362

    Agreed, I do reject the article above , articles like this are the reason the present goverment will make sure it is no longer illegal if you don't pay your tv tax.

    The UK is the second largest economy in the EU after Germany.

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/pr...tRedirect=true

    We are Germany's third biggest customer, after the USA and france, our
    economy is in good shape compared to Germanys.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...ers_of_Germany

    Germany are in no fit state for a trade war with us and our allies, they bring nothing to the table regarding their military so will struggle to form alliances outside the bloc in the current international climate.

    Germany run the EU, as soon as their voters see the effects of the trade war Merkal will be out, and an anti EU party could be in.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...-Boris-Johnson

    This is just speculation, we will find out soon enough how trading on WTO rules will impact on our economy and the economy of the EU.
    Last edited by LeonatLarge; 20-01-2020 at 13:10.

  13. #1153
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    Edit - I knew you'd reject it. Despite being pretty concise and referencing good source material. Figures.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeonatLarge View Post
    This is just speculation, we will find out soon enough how trading on WTO rules will impact on our economy and the economy of the EU.
    For the record, WTO terms wasn't in the Brexit campaign literature. Again, full circle.

    How we allow it to go forward despite having changed so much on definition is beyond me. The UK went mad 3 years ago.

  14. #1154
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    Edit - I knew you'd reject it. Despite being pretty concise and referencing good source material. Figures.


    For the record, WTO terms wasn't in the Brexit campaign literature. Again, full circle.

    How we allow it to go forward despite having changed so much on definition is beyond me. The UK went mad 3 years ago.
    With any form negotiations or business walking away or not doing a deal is common practice, this option always needs to be available to be sure of a satisfactory agreement.

  15. #1155
    Guest Asht_200's Avatar
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    Well as expected the Lords have sent the bill back to the commons


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  16. #1156
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeonatLarge View Post
    With any form negotiations or business walking away or not doing a deal is common practice, this option always needs to be available to be sure of a satisfactory agreement.
    I reject that though, because it’s not a normal negotiation.

    It goes back to the car analogy doesn’t it. We want a new car. We are negotiating the price. If we don’t reach an agreement we go back to the status quo, our current car.

    Except in this situation, Brexit and our relationship with the EU, we are negotiating our new car except we have already set our old car on fire and dumped it. So when/if we don’t agree a price, we have no car to go back to.

  17. #1157
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    I reject that though, because it’s not a normal negotiation.

    It goes back to the car analogy doesn’t it. We want a new car. We are negotiating the price. If we don’t reach an agreement we go back to the status quo, our current car.

    Except in this situation, Brexit and our relationship with the EU, we are negotiating our new car except we have already set our old car on fire and dumped it. So when/if we don’t agree a price, we have no car to go back to.
    There is no such thing as a normal negotiation.

    Your car analogy is incorrect.

    We need a new car, our old car is no longer serviceable and is not road worthy, we are negotiating a price, if we don't reach an agreement we walk away and buy a different car from someone else, otherwise we will be forced to buy whatever shit they are selling.


    Going back to our old car is not an option, Treason May has tried that already and the people didn't like it, the people both remain and leave want the result of the 2016 referendum to be implemented and not deliberately fudged so we go back to the status quo and remain in the EU.
    Last edited by LeonatLarge; 21-01-2020 at 10:32.

  18. #1158
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    That's a terrible modification of the analogy.

    The default in any failed negotiation is to walk away and return to the status quo. Buying a car. Buying a house. Negotiating a trade deal.

    Go to negotiate. Can't get better? Return to what you have.

    We won't be able to do that. If we fail this negotiation we potentially have no trade deals in place at all at the end of the transition. That's the point. I'm not saying we won't organise more, but it's not honest to ignore the fact that we'll have less than when we started.

    You're also conveniently making out that we'll go elsewhere for trade deals. There is no scenario in which we don't have a trade deal with the EU eventually. It's too big a bloc to not engage with. You need access to their quotas as part of the negotiations, WTO doesn't address that.

    So we will, in any case, end up with a worse trade deal with the EU than the one we have now. This is not an arguable point.

  19. #1159
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeonatLarge View Post
    Going back to our old car is not an option, Treason May has tried that already and the people didn't like it.
    Blatant lie, leaving the EU and remaining in the customs union was never put to the vote in parliament, nor to the public. Indeed it would likely have sailed through parliament. Theresa May never put *any* long term deal before the people nor parliament, it was deferred out of the scope of her agreement, which it likely why it was always rejected.

  20. #1160
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    That's a terrible modification of the analogy.

    The default in any failed negotiation is to walk away and return to the status quo. Buying a car. Buying a house. Negotiating a trade deal.

    Go to negotiate. Can't get better? Return to what you have.

    We won't be able to do that. If we fail this negotiation we potentially have no trade deals in place at all at the end of the transition. That's the point. I'm not saying we won't organise more, but it's not honest to ignore the fact that we'll have less than when we started.

    You're also conveniently making out that we'll go elsewhere for trade deals. There is no scenario in which we don't have a trade deal with the EU eventually. It's too big a bloc to not engage with. You need access to their quotas as part of the negotiations, WTO doesn't address that.

    So we will, in any case, end up with a worse trade deal with the EU than the one we have now. This is not an arguable point.
    That's not quite correct. The WTO Schedule of commitments includes Tariff Rate Quotas, exceeding the quota has a knock on effect and raises the tariff.

    And Leon, current WTO rules dictate that if we leave with a No Deal, the best we can hope for from the German's is to trade as a "Most Favoured Nation" which would still require Tariffs unless we setup a Free trade agreement, which is unlikely since it would benefit the UK over every other EU member state unless we adhere to EU regulations and pay in... one of the reasons why Britain voted out. Current MFN tariff on automobiles is 10%

    12% on most items of clothing. Knowing how the "High Street" loves to rip off people (artificially inflating prices) after decimalisation comes to mind (Britain is known as rip-off Britain after-all) we are going to have to get used to prices being increased post Brexit.

    Also, the list of trade agreements currently being discussed is mostly with the poorest of countries or countries where we trade very little

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