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Thread: WOT No EU Referendum Thread?

  1. #1121
    Guest Asht_200's Avatar
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    Recession did not lead to Austerity. Excessive borrowing did to leave is with a huge deficit




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  2. #1122
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    Lack of growth does not equate to recession. It's important to be precise here.

  3. #1123
    muppet Dr Bob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    Lack of growth does not equate to recession. It's important to be precise here.
    Sorry fella, that made me chuckle... We're not the actual Lords, this is a blether section of a car discussion forum.

    Nothing is important
    power-crazed Head-Mod

  4. #1124
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeonatLarge View Post
    It is a first world problem, we live in a pyramid society it's how the human race works, low birth rates basically means extinction and/or starvation and early death for the masses of the aging population.
    Sorry I am not buying it. UK death rate has surprisingly been fairly stable since 1900 at around 600k a year (negating the 2 wars). The birth rate granted was around 1 million back in 1900 but it fell to 700k in the 30s and has stayed at that level till today with a rise up to a million again in the 60s. So for the last 50 years the population has grown by 100-200k each year not taking migration into account.
    Quote Originally Posted by silverzx View Post
    I like Mark, he seems fair.
    Quote Originally Posted by Slip_n_slide View Post
    Mark is right.

  5. #1125
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    It’s a good and lively debate, course it’s important to be precise. In the context of the debate.

  6. #1126
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    Lack of growth does not equate to recession. It's important to be precise here.
    No, That statement is misleading and incorrect.

    The UK/EU definition of recession copied from the link below :

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...United_Kingdom


    In the United Kingdom and all other*EU member states, a recession is generally defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted*quarter-on-quarter*figures for*real GDP.

  7. #1127
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeonatLarge View Post
    No, That statement is misleading and incorrect.

    The UK/EU definition of recession copied from the link below :

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...United_Kingdom


    In the United Kingdom and all other*EU member states, a recession is generally defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted*quarter-on-quarter*figures for*real GDP.
    Lack of growth or “Without growth” is not the same as negative growth, where the economy shrinks


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  8. #1128
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    As above. It’s neither misleading nor incorrect. No growth is not recession.

  9. #1129
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    Technically speaking, actual GDP has to go up in real terms in order to have the same relative value that it had in a previous period so growth could actually be taken as a recession.

    So, for example say the gross national product of Bazookiland for 2018 was 20 bazookas per quarter, then to have the same relative value in 2019, it might need to be 20.1 bazookas per quarter.
    If the GDP actually rose to 20.05 bazookas in 2019 Q1 and 20.06 bazookas in 2019 Q2, that might still be classed as a recession even though it had gone up in actual bazookas.

    However, that is really just gook math and the real definition of a recession is that your average punter feels poorer, less confident of being able to pay their bills and less inclined to piss their money up the wall.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark View Post
    Sorry I am not buying it. UK death rate has surprisingly been fairly stable since 1900 at around 600k a year (negating the 2 wars). The birth rate granted was around 1 million back in 1900 but it fell to 700k in the 30s and has stayed at that level till today with a rise up to a million again in the 60s. So for the last 50 years the population has grown by 100-200k each year not taking migration into account.

    Those figures seem correct, but the birth rates you provided includes the births of children who's parents migrated here from other countries, thousands of those babies in the figures you quoted are the children of migrants,for this reason we have to take migration into account, if the recent mass migration of people from the EU is stopped the birth rate will drop dramatically, it has already dropped over 3% in a year and we haven’t even left yet.

    In 1900 the UK population was 35 million, the UK population is officially over 67 million today, in reality it is probably over 70 million with all the illegals, using the figures you have provided we are having 300k less children with twice as many people living here, so we have an ageing population, people are living much longer than what they have in the recent past, we will have less people percentage wise working and paying taxes and more people drawing their pensions and rinsing the NHS and social care services.

    In the past our pensions relied on financial stability returning enough from the money that had been invested to financially sustain us, this is no longer an option because of the 2008 crash when the public had to bail the banks out.

    I believe most people who have invested in a private pension will find out they have just been funding the liberal elites jollys as they will not see the return they expected. The government will have to raise the pensionable⁴ age to balance the books; as the average age of the population advances the pensionable age will have to follow, effectively forcing people to work until they are no longer capable to do so, after which we could have to provide twenty plus years of support.

    The rules changed in 2008 so we can’t use past figures for modern financial projections, the trouble is the liberal elite who control our finances are still playing the pre 2008 game, for some unknown reason they expect a different result, we need a high birth rate or substantial sustained immigration.

  11. #1131
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    And we had immigration from the EU, however more were coming in from outside, which the government always had the capability to control it but didn’t.


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    Out today, the Chancellor finally admitting that Brexit won’t be good for all U.K. businesses.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...box=1579343836

    What I find particularly enraging about this is that he’s now making clear that there’ll be no support or aid for companies that choose to align themselves more to the E.U, even tho they’re likely to do that because they’re their biggest customers. And that he has the audacity to say that these same companies have all known we are leaving for 3 years, insinuating they’ve had plenty of time to prepare despite having no knowledge of the new U.K. regulations or trading arrangement.

    There was also no mention of it in the referendum material, it was all just everything will be great. Not that it’ll be good for some and not the others.

    Funny how all these snippets are popping out just before January 31st.

  13. #1133
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    Out today, the Chancellor finally admitting that Brexit won’t be good for all U.K. businesses.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...box=1579343836

    What I find particularly enraging about this is that he’s now making clear that there’ll be no support or aid for companies that choose to align themselves more to the E.U, even tho they’re likely to do that because they’re their biggest customers. And that he has the audacity to say that these same companies have all known we are leaving for 3 years, insinuating they’ve had plenty of time to prepare despite having no knowledge of the new U.K. regulations or trading arrangement.

    There was also no mention of it in the referendum material, it was all just everything will be great. Not that it’ll be good for some and not the others.

    Funny how all these snippets are popping out just before January 31st.
    To be fair, they should have done their own homework. With the way Brexit has been handled they should have known that the final outcome would be bad for them


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  14. #1134
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    How do you do homework on this? No business has any idea what the U.K. government rules will be, and no one knows what the trading relationship will be or how it will work.

    It’s literally impossible to prepare.

  15. #1135
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    How do you do homework on this? No business has any idea what the U.K. government rules will be, and no one knows what the trading relationship will be or how it will work.

    It’s literally impossible to prepare.
    Prepare for the worst


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  16. #1136
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    But again, what’s the worst? Do you prepare for a 100% tarrif? A 10% tariff? What if the new rule makes your component illegal? What if the new agreement says you have to buy from another country first due to a new trading rule?

    You can’t prepare at all.

  17. #1137
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    No deal means WTO Tarrifs. It’s up to the company to determine what these tarrifs are and what the limits are


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  18. #1138
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    Quote Originally Posted by piman2k View Post
    Out today, the Chancellor finally admitting that Brexit won’t be good for all U.K. businesses.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...box=1579343836

    What I find particularly enraging about this is that he’s now making clear that there’ll be no support or aid for companies that choose to align themselves more to the E.U, even tho they’re likely to do that because they’re their biggest customers. And that he has the audacity to say that these same companies have all known we are leaving for 3 years, insinuating they’ve had plenty of time to prepare despite having no knowledge of the new U.K. regulations or trading arrangement.

    There was also no mention of it in the referendum material, it was all just everything will be great. Not that it’ll be good for some and not the others.

    Funny how all these snippets are popping out just before January 31st.
    The government are talking tough, we should remember that they have just bailed Flybe out, I would of thought that with the 93 billion pound trade defecit when the EU start the trade war we could use all the excess cash generated from the tariffs to subsidize these companys through the initial Brexit teething period.

    If we leave on WTO terms it will also release the 50 billion from the EU divorce bill which could also be used to help the companys that will be particularly exposed to Brexit.
    Last edited by LeonatLarge; 18-01-2020 at 17:54.

  19. #1139
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeonatLarge View Post
    The government are talking tough, we should remember that they have just bailed Flybe out, I would of thought that with the 93 billion pound trade defecit when the EU start the trade war we could use all the excess cash generated from the tariffs to subsidize these companys through the initial Brexit teething period.
    That won’t happen. They’ve already promised extra funding we don’t have to the NHS....

    What about the CAP farming subsidises the farmers will no longer get?


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    If we leave on WTO terms and don’t pay our contractual obligations to the E.U. on what we owe and what we signed up to, how will the rest of the world look at us with a straight face when we come seeking co-operative trade deals based on trust, being a country that will have literally just stuck two fingers up to their responsibilities on the last deal?

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